Full Coverage! Watch Chavez Jr vs Martinez Live Streaming Online: Odds and Preview: What's the Best Bet on Saturday Night? September 15, 2012

Sergio Martinez is the favorite over Julio Cesar Chavez Jr on Saturday, but the odds aren't wide. (Photo by Ed Mulholland-US PRESSWIRE),
Julio Cesar Chavez Jr vs Sergio Martinez (HBO PPV)

Sep 15, 2012 9:00 PM EDT
Thomas & Mack Center - Las Vegas, NV
Tom Craze returns to BLH this afternoon with his weekly look at the boxing game from a bettor's perspective. This week, of course, he's focused on Chavez Jr vs Martinez, as well as Canelo vs Lopez and the undercard action on both shows.

On Saturday night, the WBC middleweight titlist will step into the ring weighing around 30lbs more than his counterpart. He'll be around a decade younger than the guy in the other corner, with what's expected to be the majority of a sell-out Vegas crowd cheering him on. With 48 fights to his name, he's still unbeaten and will be taking home the bulk of a sizeable main-event purse. So, why the hell is Julio Cesar Chavez Jr a betting underdog?

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After initially opening in the region of +200 shortly after the fight was announced, the simple answer is that he might not be for much longer. Sergio Martinez, officially the challenger here after a Jose Sulaiman-orchestrated heist so far-fetched it'd make Vince McMahon wince, started off as a firm 2/1-on favourite. What's happened gradually throughout fight week - and is now gathering steam - is that a considerable gamble on Chavez Jr appears to be underway. Much like in a horse race where a reputable source has word of a good thing in a stable, what was once the outsider could, remarkably, go off in places on Saturday night as the marginal favourite.

This is, of course, most likely to happen in Mexican-run, or indeed -frequented books, where the sheer weight of patriotic money gives the layers little choice but to shift the price in response to the groundswell. It's a phenomenon often seen in this kind of match-up, where a fight becomes, in the eyes of the general fan, more nation vs. nation than anything as simple as two fighters against each other for twelve rounds or less. A good example would be that of Kevin Mitchell, who fought very much as the home fighter in a stadium fight in front of around 20,000 against Michael Katsidis. Katsidis not only had the better pedigree and a solid reputation, but there were whispers that Mitchell's preparations were far from ideal. Nonetheless, the money kept coming, and Mitchell - who went off as a -170 favourite or shorter - got demolished inside three rounds. The list goes on.

The movement in the market may not continue, of course. Martinez, now up to -175 in places, is still as short as -225 elsewhere. The +150 on Chavez may yet stabilise, at least more generally, with global bookmakers as opposed to Mexican independents running for cover. It may not, and his price could plummet further. It's worth remembering, though, that weight of money isn't always analogous to a change in a fighter's actual chances of winning. Julio Cesar Chavez Jr isn't getting any better as a result.